Republican’s Wary of “america’s Mayor”

In the race for the Republican nomination for President of the United States, Rudolph Giuliani has been in the lead for many months. His lead in 2007 has been small but consistent over his closest competitor, Fred Thompson. The rest of the candidates in the Republican field trail these two candidates significantly in all the national polls. Mitt Romney has a very high voter unfavorable rating nationally and is positioned around ten percent. His advantage is that he leads in the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan. John McCain’s campaign imploded months ago. Mike Huckabee’s campaign has only recently become viable in Iowa.

So the match up (at least for now) appears to feature Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson Rudy Giuliani even leads Hillary Clinton in a recent projected 2008 Presidential Election matchup by 44% to 41% according to a Rasmussen public opinion poll. So why is there an uneasy feeling in the Republican party about the person that was featured as the Time magazine 2001 “Person Of the Year” and who is often referred to by the American media as “America’s Mayor” (because of his strong leadership in New York after the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001)?

Let’s examine the reasons why the Republican Party is wary of Rudy Giuliani:

- Rudy Giuliani is not conservative enough for Republican primary voters: Giuliani is viewed by 68% of Republican voters as liberal or moderate and has taken positions on abortion (pro-choice), gay rights (supported gay rights), and gun control (supports) that are clearly unfavorable to the party’s social conservative base.

- Rudy Giuliani does not have a background in U.S. foreign policy: While voters have historically never held this lack of experience against candidates that have been governors, it does highlight the fact that Guiliani only has a background as Mayor on his resume. Giuliani may be vulnerable to making major mistakes on foreign policy questions in debates.

– Questions exist concerning Giuliani’s security planning prior to 9/11: Jerome Hauer, New York’s emergency management director from 1996 to 2000, and a leading U.S. expert on biological and chemical terrorism, has stated that Giuliani was closely involved in locating the city’s crisis control room in the World Trade Center complex, even though it was a known terrorist target after the 1993 truck bomb attack which killed six people at the site. The decision on the location of the crisis control room proved disastrous in 2001 as the building was set ablaze in the collapse of the adjoining twin towers. Mr. Giuliani is also blamed by some in New York for failing to introduce an integrated emergency control system that failed to ensure co-ordination between the police and fire brigade, despite the need for coordination in the aftermath of the 1993 truck bombing.

- Rudy Giuliani’s personal background looks controversial in a general election campaign: Giuliani’s first marriage was to his second cousin, Regina Peruggi. They were married for 14 years, before Giuliani had their marriage annulled by the Catholic church. His second marriage was to Donna Hanover, a reporter and sometimes soap-opera actress. Immediately after Giuliani left office, he filed for divorce, accusing Hanover of “cruel and inhumane treatment.” In her response, Hanover blamed the ex-mayor’s “open and notorious adultery.” When their divorce was finalized, Hanover received a million dollars a year in alimony. He divorced Donna Hanover and married divorced nurse, Judith Nathan in 2006.

There are about four weeks until the voters begin to cast their ballots in the Republican primary and the race has been status quo for several months. Giuliani continues to hold a lead in the polls over conservative candidate Fred Thompson. All the other candidates are far back of the two leaders in the polls. This race is really about to begin. Giuliani has the name recognition and the leadership attributes that won voters favor after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. However, Giuliani holds positions that do not reflect the beliefs of the core base of the Republican party. He also may be vulnerable in a 2008 Presidential election battle with the Democratic Party based on his limited foreign policy experience and issues in his personal background.

The Democratic Party has a clear leader in their nomination battle in Hillary Clinton and that race may be over before the first primary vote is cast. For the Republican Party, the race for the nomination is still wide open and about to begin.